No better than monkeys throwing darts

"William Sheridan was an economist called in to testify in front of Congress on near term inflation. He got the brilliant idea to say, “You know what? I ought to check the track records of these other geniuses like me who have previously been called to testify on the outlook for inflation and see if they got it right.” And guess what he found? He found these geniuses had no better forecasting record than what is called naive forecast.  In economic terms, that means if inflation is currently 3%, you project 3%.  In other words, they were no better than monkeys throwing darts..." - Larry Swedroe, Principal & Director of Research, BAM Advisor Services, in Jan/Feb 2010 Journal of Indexes, Is Buy & Hold Dead?

Can we include the Fed as well?  How about those that predict when intermediate or long term becomes near term?

Update on Tuesday, January 5, 2010 at 03:28PM by hb

The article Is Buy & Hold Dead? is a round table discussion of investing greats including John Bogle, Burton Malkiel, Jerome Siegel, Gus Sauter, and others. It is a must read.